The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has accelerated a global trend aimed at creating an economic and financial universe parallel to the existing system. We have in the past highlighted the possibility of GCC countries joining the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, whose populations together make up 41% of the world.
These countries also account for 23% of the global economy and 18% of trade, reflecting their relative importance to the global economy as a whole. Recently, Saudi Arabia applied to join the group, a move warmly welcomed by existing members. Discussions are also underway on the prospect of the UAE and Turkey joining, which will bring about a fundamental shift in global power dynamics and help create a more balanced order.
The probable membership of the three countries means a huge change that will tip the scales in favor of the East. Saudi Arabia, with its enormous energy potential, the United Arab Emirates as a global commercial and financial center, and Turkey, with its location, industrial and technological growth, will add significant influence to the group and redistribute power between the East and West.
More than listening to geography
It goes without saying that a stronger BRICS means further dividing the world into two big blocs. The first will be led by the western camp, which currently controls the levers of the world economy. The bloc includes Japan and Australia, while the eastern power base is formed by the BRICS economies, despite the presence of Brazil within them. This means an intensification of geopolitical competition ahead.
Joining oil-producing countries would mean that the group dominates with 31% of world oil production, a dramatic development in itself that will have fundamental effects on international relations. Quite simply because the world will see an integration in the BRICS of the most important producers and consumers of energy. In addition, the presence of key commercial and logistics centers within the group means greater control of global trade.
The Good Mindsets of the Cold War
The West tries to maintain its historical positions, which it greatly strengthened after the Second World War, and tries to resist any change in the structure of the world economy. At the same time, making mistake after mistake by ignoring and disregarding significant changes.
Consequently, he lost significant supporters who carry considerable political and economic clout.
As for the opposite pole, it acts intelligently with an open mind and fair interactions with other nations and embracing the saying of shared interests. Others are likely to join the BRICS in the coming years if the Western bloc does not alter its antiquated ideologies and practices.
Two opposing economic and financial poles will eventually emerge. The BRICS states have announced the creation of a parallel bank with a capital of 150 billion dollars, competing with the IMF. Moreover, the Ukrainian crisis has considerably strengthened the economic and commercial ties between the members of the group, making them more dependent on each other. Many companies and institutions have withdrawn from the BRICS countries’ markets and export restrictions have been put in place on certain high-tech products to Russia and China.
Work for a fair world order
An expansion of the BRICS can go a long way towards establishing equitable relations based on the interests of many countries rather than on the discord between countries of one or the other pole. All of this requires a deep understanding of global events and outcomes.
The existing economic system and its components, founded 80 years ago, are no longer viable due to massive shifts in economic and geopolitical power relations, the rise of new economic powers and the fall of others. This truth must be well understood if the world is to prevent new conflicts from hampering a fair world order.