COP demands comprehensive reform ahead of UAE meeting
In typical COP fashion, world governments seized on a last-minute deal on Sunday as an extension of the summit, including a breakthrough on the loss and damage agenda.
However, as welcome as the new agreement was, it was a summit that took one step forward and two steps back on the overall goal of increasing the ambition of climate action, with the limit global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed in Paris in 2015 now in growing danger. With the need for far greater outcomes, COP27 therefore increased calls for fundamental reform of the UN-led climate framework process, which may no longer be fit for purpose.
As disappointing as the overall results of the event in Egypt were, the loss and damage was a significant success. Global South countries generally welcomed the decision to help developing countries deal with the adverse effects of rising global temperatures, including extreme floods, storms, drought and rising sea levels, as they contributed little to the pollution that caused it.
However, the broader global agreement reached on Sunday after tense and overflowing negotiations offered little progress on reducing the greenhouse gases that actually cause loss and damage. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Sunday: “Let’s be clear. Our planet is still in the emergency room. We need to drastically reduce emissions now, and this is an issue that this COP has not addressed. A loss and damage fund is essential, but it’s no answer if the climate crisis wipes a small island state off the map or turns an entire African country into a desert…the world still needs a jump quantum in climate ambition.
The thrust of Guterres’ remarks is absolutely right and a key question now is how best to start pushing forward the COP28 agenda in the UAE next year. There are several answers to the question, including that negotiations should start now, with all countries ready to get a clear deal in 12 months. This must include pushing key countries to increase their ambition and submit improved pledges so that there is a chance of sticking to the 1.5C limit with a focus on phasing out fossil fuels .
More and more actors believe that only profound changes in our economy and our society can avoid the worst scenarios
Andrew Hammond
Going forward, however, there is a growing question mark over the future of the COPs themselves and whether they are the most effective way to advance the global climate agenda. More than 30,000 people attended COP27 in Egypt and there are calls for a lighter, more focused forum to address key issues unfolding in the remaining years of what US President Joe Biden has called the “decisive decade”.
There is merit that the UN and key governments in the North and South are now considering this issue. The alternative is a “Groundhog Day” type of storyline, mirroring the hit 1993 film based on the title character, played by Bill Murray, caught in a time loop, repeatedly living on the same day. Similarly, there is a danger that COPs will continue to make only incremental progress when what is needed is transformational change. More and more actors believe that only profound changes in our economy and our society can avoid the worst scenarios.
While the world is currently on a path to a disastrous warming of more than 3°C, this path can still be changed through proactive and concerted global action. This includes the world’s best diplomats taking more ownership and governments putting their full weight behind stronger results.
It is no coincidence that the most effective COP took place in 2015, when France hosted the best organized event, reaching out to nations up to a year in advance. This included the then Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, showing the full range of his diplomatic skills to ensure the success of the conference.
Even if profound change were to occur, however, at least one other geopolitical requirement is necessary. This is for the United States and China, as the two most influential players in global politics today, to redouble their efforts in their climate cooperation, which was thankfully reaffirmed earlier this month. at the G20 summit in Indonesia following the bilateral meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi. Jinping.
With the United States and China now almighty on the climate agenda, their cooperation is essential if the pace of ambition and delivery of climate action is to be reached. This is not inconceivable, given that tackling global warming is a key political priority for Biden and Xi, and it is sometimes forgotten that a key precursor to the Paris Agreement in 2015 was a bilateral deal in this area. .
However, now is the time for all key countries, not just the United States and China, to step in and urgently get to the negotiating table with the hosts of the United Arab Emirates so that the momentum can be created long before COP28. Additionally, the UN and other key actors need to assess the medium-term viability of the COP process and consider how a leaner, more focused forum could address the massive challenges of global climate action in the years to come. .
- Andrew Hammond is a partner at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the authors in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News