As the war in Ukraine rages on, most of Europe has united in an anti-Russian camp. However, one country refused to choose sides: Serbia.
Belgrade is seen as Moscow’s last friend in Europe, as it decided not to join the EU sanctions regime. As a result, it has come under heavy criticism and pressure from EU officials who have made it clear that the country, as an EU candidate state, should align its foreign policy with the common foreign and security policy of the EU, in particular by imposing sanctions on Russia.
The Serbian government has defended its position, saying it is not in the nation’s interest to choose sides. Yet, in the current polarized geopolitical climate, neutrality is becoming increasingly untenable, as pressure from the EU continues to mount.
Serbia applied for EU membership in 2009 and has been in membership talks since 2014. It has opened 22 of the 35 negotiating chapters and has repeatedly said its top priority is to become a member. of the EU.
However, in October, Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, affirmed that Serbia’s EU accession process has stalled because it does not align its foreign policy with that of Brussels.
Slowing down the accession process is not in itself a sufficiently effective threat, because Serbia knows that it will not be allowed to join until it resolves its dispute with Kosovo, which has declared its independence. in 2008.
The EU has other, more effective options for pressuring Serbia to comply, which it has not used. Belgrade received more than 1.5 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in pre-accession funds in the period 2014-2020, and is expected to receive an even larger amount between 2021 and 2027. If the EU decides to refuse access to these pre-accession funds or to stop investments, this would undoubtedly harm the Serbian economy and development.
But Serbia also has a lot to lose if it follows the EU’s lead in imposing sanctions on Moscow. The country imports about 85 percent the gas it consumes from Russia; doing anything that could interrupt gas flows would have significant consequences on its economy and societal comfort.
By not imposing sanctions, Serbia secured an agreement for a three-year uninterrupted supply of Russian gas on preferential terms.
This allowed Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to reassure the Serbian population that they will not suffer this winter as much of Europe braces for power shortages and sky-high energy bills. The contract also put the country in a position to export natural gas to its neighbors at a profit.
Serbia also has a free trade agreement with Russia in effect since 2006 and a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union signed in 2019, which have opened up vast markets for Serbian exports, but could be upset if relations between the two countries soured.
Additionally, Serbia has seen an influx of Russian-owned businesses settling in the country, mainly from the IT sector, with more than 1,000 such businesses registered with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry since the start. of the war in Ukraine. The aviation sector has also benefited – national carrier Air Serbia remaining the only European airline to maintain scheduled flights to Russian airports.
Last but not least, Serbia relies on Russia’s political support and influence in the UN and other international organizations to block Kosovo’s membership applications, which is part of Serbian efforts to prevent its international recognition.
At the same time, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Serbia has not always supported its ally in international forums. In March, he passed a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine and in October, another rejecting Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Serbian UN diplomats also supported suspending Russia’s membership of the UN Human Rights Council, which Vucic said was done under pressure from the EU. All this demonstrates the pragmatism of Serbian foreign policy: by standing on the sidelines of the EU-Russia conflict, it tried to have its cake and eat it too. Indeed, in its relations with East and West, Serbia has been guided by self-interest rather than shared values – an approach that seems to be popular with the Serbian population.
The EU’s warning that it might halt its accession negotiations may not have the desired impact, as a growing part of the Serbian population is less and less eager to join the EU.
Recent polls show that not only support for the EU in Serbia has fallen below the 50% threshold, but also those who oppose EU membership become more numerous than those who support it. Declining enthusiasm for the EU is largely due to the demand for normalization of relations with Kosovo as a condition for EU membership, which is increasingly seen as an EU euphemism for Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
At the same time, public sympathies for Russia are traditionally high in Serbia due to the historical, cultural and religious ties between the two countries. So, if forced to choose sides, could Serbia really decide against the EU?
The answer to that is a clear “no”. Although the general population may not be, the Serbian government is fully aware that the EU is by far the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 60% of total trade in 2021. In comparison, trade with Russia represents less than 5% of the total. Therefore, Serbia’s main economic interests lie with the EU.
In response to mounting pressure from Brussels, the Serbian government’s determination to maintain neutrality on the EU-Russia dispute is beginning to waver. In a recent statement to the media, President Vucic said he would maintain his current policy until the “costs” for Serbia become more important than other considerations and until Serbia has to recognize a different reality. This was seen as preparing both the Serbian public and international partners for an inevitable and imminent shift in foreign policy.
The Serbian government has said it will not be able to buy Russian oil due to EU sanctions which will come into effect in December. It also announced a 12 billion euro ($12.4 billion) investment plan to diversify its oil and gas imports. All of this is a sign that Belgrade may at least partially succumb to EU pressure.
Serbia’s pragmatic neutrality has served it well so far. But since realpolitik takes precedence over tactical diplomacy, it is likely that she will have to distance herself from Russia before long.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.